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For what it's worth |
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For football fans, one of the big questions for the start of a new season is always: What will the line-up be for the first match ?
For what it’s worth, I will give you my prediction of the Hibs line-up for the opener against Motherwell at Easter Road on 31st July.
I have put my team together from 3 categories : certainties, probables and hunches. My certainties are Gottskalksson, Dennis, Lovering, Sauzee, McGinlay and Latapy. Probables are Renwick, Lehman and Jack. And my hunches for the last two slots are Henry and Crawford.
My reasoning is as follows. At the end of last season the first choice line-up, to my mind, was :
Gottskalksson |
Collins |
Dennis |
Marinkov |
Lovering |
Sauzee |
Lovell |
McGinlay |
Latapy |
Crawford |
Paatelainen |
You could argue that Hughes or Skinner would not have lost their places but for injuries but I doubt either would have got back in to this team automatically. Paul Hartley was pushing for a slot but McLeish seemed comfortable to keep him as an option on the bench.
The shape of the team was built around a diamond in midfield with Latapy playing behind the front two and Lovell and McGinlay making bursting runs into the box past Latapy into goalscoring positions. (The quartet of Crawford, Paatelainen, Lovell and McGinlay were therefore the principal goalscorers though Latapy chipped in as well). The playmaker slot in front of the defence was filled for the first part of the season by Skinner and then latterly by Sauzee.
So what has happened since then ?
We have signed (I believe) a new goalkeeper - Nick Colgan. He may push Gottskalksson for the first team slot later in the season but there is no doubt that Oli will play on Saturday.
McLeish has been experimenting with the fullback positions during the pre-season. It is clear from Derek Collins exclusion from the Denmark tour and the fact that he has played warm-up games with the ‘B’ team that he has dropped out of favour. Smith and Renwick have both been tried in the right back slot and indeed, against AB in Denmark, Smith played right back and Renwick left back. Lovering must, however, be a certainty for left back and I believe Renwick will play at right back.
Dennis is a certainty as he has played in the big warm up games and looked comfortable against Middlesbrough. Marinkov looked pretty solid last season but again, reading the runes, he appears to have dropped out of McLeish’s thinking - he was not on the bench against Middlesbrough and played for the ‘B’ team afterwards. I think McLeish will go for Matthias Jack, whom he has praised lavishly, and Yogi will be the backup on the bench.
Now it gets more difficult. McLeish moved away from the diamond formation against Middlesbrough. With Paul Hartley playing right out on the touchline, there would have been too big a gap on the right side of a diamond. So Hibs played a more orthodox four midfielders across the park with Sauzee and Henry in the middle (Sauzee slightly behind) and McGinlay on the left - as below.
Gottskalksson |
Renwick |
Dennis |
Jack |
Lovering |
Sauzee |
|||
Hartley |
Henry |
McGinlay |
Latapy |
Lehman |
What’s more, he experimented throughout the game with this system trying first Lovell and then Crawford on the right side of the four man midfield. This meant playing Latapy as an out and out striker with Lehman.
Whilst Latapy played brilliantly as a striker, and McLeish learnt a lot about how to line up the team differently, I believe he will return to the more practised formation with Latapy behind a front two. (Also, at the back of McLeish’s mind, he would not have wanted Motherwell to see too much ahead of the league opener.)
Whichever way McLeish decides to go, Sauzee, Latapy and McGinlay are certainties.
I believe Lehman, as the only target man in the absence of Paatelainen, is a strong probability.
Which leaves two slots. If we did play with the same formation as against Middlesbrough, with Latapy up front, I think you would see Henry and either Lovell or Hartley in midfield. If we play the diamond midfield, I think you’ll see Crawford up front and either Lovell or Henry in the last midfield slot. My hunch is that we will play the diamond with Henry just getting in ahead of Lovell.
Hence a line-up as shown below.
Gottskalksson |
Renwick |
Dennis |
Jack |
Lovering |
Sauzee |
Henry |
McGinlay |
Latapy |
Crawford |
Lehman |
Two more points :
On the positive side, we have a good depth of squad. Colgan covering goalkeeper, Smith and Collins covering fullback, Hughes and Marinkov covering central defence, Skinner, Lovell and Hartley covering midfield, and Mixu returning from suspension to push for a place up front.
However, I see little opportunity for home grown talent to burst through. If anything, the young pretenders seem to have moved down the pecking order. Even Kenny Miller and Mark Dempsie who had chances last year will struggle to get an opening this time round.