Does the move from a ten to twelve team premier league make any sense ? I think not.

 
Lets look first at where we are supposed to be heading. The ultimate aim, we are told, is to have a premier league of 16 clubs. If that were achieved and teams played each other twice then you would have 30 league games instead of the current 36 (ten teams playing each other 4 times). Big advantages being :

• Playing each other four times brings a staleness to Scottish football. More teams playing each other twice would freshen up the SPL.
• Only 30 league games allows players more time to recover from injuries
• The big clubs will be able to compete better in Europe without such a heavy domestic burden

All very sensible and admirable and something I would support. So 12 teams is, supposedly, the first step towards this 16 team long-term aim.

 
The plan for next season is for the 12 teams to play each other 3 times (33 games) then split into two halves and play the teams in your half one more time (5 games). This gives a total of 38 league games. Hence it achieves the exact opposite of the advantages listed above with a bigger league programme and most teams still facing each other 4 times. What’s more, this system is laughable and open to all sorts of arguments about who had the advantage of more home games against whoever. No other country in the world operates a lopsided league programme such as this.

So what was wrong with playing each other twice (22 games) then splitting in two and playing each of the teams in your half twice (10 games). This gives a total of 32 league games and is at least a step in the right direction. It is also an even contest with no arguments over who played who at home more often. Much more sensible all round.

Well, if you believe the newspapers, the big objection was that clubs who ended in the bottom half of the table after 22 games would only get one home game against the old firm in the season and the loss of revenue would be a big problem. (Remembering, of course, that home teams keep all the gate money so you get nothing extra from playing at Parkhead or Ibrox).

Personally, I don’t think this adds up. The maximum number of away fans at Hibs, as an example, is 3,700. Even your less well supported teams will take 1,500 or so seats. So a game against an old firm team gives you 2,000 extra ticket sales, approximately. In the lopsided league you have 3 games against each team, so you could only reasonably expect to have one of the old firm at home twice. Hence you lose 2,000 ticket sales from the loss of one home tie. Lets say your average home crowd is 10,000. 32 league games gives you 16 home games and hence 160,000 ticket sales. And your telling me a loss of 2,000 out of 160,000 is going to make a huge difference to your finances.

No, it has to be a bigger loss than that which is causing the concern. My own guess is that clubs do not really want to cut the fixture list at all. They need as many home fixtures as they can get. The lopsided 12 team arrangement gives you 38 games, hence 19 home matches which keeps the revenue up at current levels. And if this hunch is correct, the 16 team league, supposedly the objective, with only 15 home matches would be a definite non-starter.

Another reason we will probably be stuck with the 12 teams is how to get to 16. There is no plan in place for this and no easy solution other than just biting the bullet and promoting four teams which I don’t see happening.

So, my own instincts tell me that the clubs have no intention of moving to a 16 team league and we will be stuck with a ludicrous 12 team arrangement for some time. And, of course, the only reason we are moving to 12 is because the SPL had to promise this when they broke away from the Scottish League.

 
And one final point - the move from 10 to 12 teams makes it almost impossible to get relegated this season. The bottom team in the premier only goes in to a play-off if all three of the top three teams in the first division meet the stadium requirements of the SPL. If any of the top three do not meet this requirement, then the top two teams who meet the requirement are promoted and there is no play-off.