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Scottish Cup semi-final preview |
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Cup Statistics
Lets start with a look at the statistics - never the most reliable indicator but interesting nevertheless.
Scottish Cup Finals - Overall
| Team | Played | Won |
| Hibernian | 10 | 2 |
| Aberdeen | 14 | 7 |
So Aberdeen have a pretty conclusively better record in this competition. Now we all know that Hibs have not won the tournament since 1902 and, in fact, if you look at the post war record then the statistics make even worse reading for Hibs fans.
Scottish Cup Finals - since 1947
| Team | Played | Won |
| Hibernian | 4 | 0 |
| Aberdeen | 13 | 7 |
The two teams have only met in the final once and that was in the first post-war tournament of 1947 with Aberdeen winning 2-1.
The teams have met in semi-finals 4 times with honours even but Aberdeen winning the more recent encounters. Victors were :
1924 Hibs 0-0, 0-0, 1-0
1979 Hibs 2-1
1986 Aberdeen 3-0
1993 Aberdeen 1-0
Just to complete this grim statistics section, since 1979 (when Hibernian were desperately unlucky to lose the final against Rangers 0-0, 0-0, 2-3) Hibs have lost all their semi-finals, going down twice to Aberdeen as recorded above and twice to Celtic.
1986 Aberdeen 3-0
1989 Celtic 3-1
1993 Aberdeen 1-0
1995 Celtic 0-0, 3-1
Not to worry - Oscar Wilde famously said, ‘there are lies, damned lies and statistics’ so we will ignore the above and look for other means of predicting this match.
League Form
Aberdeen are going through one of their worst ever seasons and currently sit bottom of the SPL. However, they have gone from being a laughing stock to a team that can give anyone a game on their day. This they have done by investing pretty heavily in the transfer market. The team that will take to the pitch on Sunday will bear little resemblance to the Aberdeen that everyone was hammering at the start of the season.
Hibs have blown hot and cold this season alternating between; beating the top teams and aiming for third spot; and losing to the bottom teams and skirting just above the relegation zone. We have been pretty consistently in the fifth, sixth, seventh region.
Our form against Aberdeen has mirrored this inconsistency. We were one of the first teams to drop points against them when we escaped with a lucky 2-2 draw at Pittodrie. We then won 2-0 at Easter Road and were comfortably the better team. Finally, we recently lost comprehensively 4-0 at Pittodrie in what must be one of our worst performances of the season.
Difficult to draw many conclusions from that then.
Star Turns
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In a game that is likely to be tight
and will certainly be keenly contested, it could well come down to who has the key player
that can do something special to turn the match. In the past Aberdeen fans would have looked to the enigmatic Eoin Jess to provide that spark but the suspicion is that his best days are behind him and he will not now fulfil some of the lavish predictions made of him. These days Aberdeen have a couple of other ‘name’ players to look to in Stavrum and Zerouali. |
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From what I have seen of Stavrum, he looks a strong target man and reasonable finisher. However, it is the little Moroccan, Zerouali, who the Dons will look to for a piece of magic. He has impressed me and is just the kind of player that could turn the match Aberdeen’s way.
For Hibernian, you cannot look past the midfield duo of Sauzee and Latapy. They have both shown that they are big stage performers, reserving their best performances for the high profile matches against the big teams. Franck Sauzee is determined to bow out of football on a high and what better way than to make a Cup final his last appearance. Franck has shown in games with the old firm that he can still mix it with the best and I expect him to be really up for this contest.
And where Aberdeen have Zerouali, we have the little magician, Russell Latapy. Again, a big match player and the man most likely to do something special in the opposition box. The wide open spaces of Hampden should suit him and he has shown on countless occasions what he can do given the ball at his feet and the room to operate in.
Other Factors
Aberdeen are deep in relegation trouble and their first priority has to be getting off the bottom of the league. (Relying on Falkirk finishing in the top three of the First Division to save them is a dangerous game. Raith are still in the promotion race and have the stadium in place). So this Cup semi is not their only concern.
Hibs on the other hand can concentrate fully on this match. We are not going to finish bottom of the SPL. Likewise we are highly unlikely to finish third. So this match is our season in ninety minutes and a good chance of a ticket into Europe.
Hibs will also have the bigger support. Playing the game in Glasgow on a Sunday night was always going to restrict the crowd size but I would still expect the Hibs support to turn out in big numbers. It is our first semi in a while whereas Aberdeen have just played a Cup final. I would expect the Hibs support to outnumber the Aberdeen fans by as much as two to one.
Conclusion
I am predicting a one goal victory for Hibernian. I think this team has more bottle than some of our previous Cup semi teams. I believe we can dominate the midfield. The Hibernian support can be like an extra man. All these things plus some Sauzee / Latapy magic can put us in the final.
